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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 60

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Carolina Panthers 23

What Actually Happened

(1:43) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 17-G.Whalen to CAR 48 for 12 yards (59-L.Kuechly). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.04 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 60, worth -0.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model