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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 73

Carolina Panthers 23 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(2:11) 8-B.Nortman punts 40 yards to IND 33, Center-44-J.Jansen. 13-T.Hilton pushed ob at IND 40 for 7 yards (56-A.Klein).

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.62 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 73, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 31, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP