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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 14 at the 42

Carolina Panthers 10 – Indianapolis Colts 6

What Actually Happened

(1:00) 8-B.Nortman punts 34 yards to IND 8, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 13-T.Hilton.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.96 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 42, worth -1.67 EP
KICK -0.20 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model