4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 44

Carolina Panthers 10 – Indianapolis Colts 6

What Actually Happened

(11:20) 8-B.Nortman punts 24 yards to IND 20, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 13-T.Hilton.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.19 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 44, worth -2.26 EP
KICK -0.83 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP