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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 14

Carolina Panthers 3 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(9:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton left guard to IND 12 for 2 yards (52-D.Jackson; 50-J.Freeman).

The Three Options

GO +3.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.31 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 14, worth +0.12 EP
KICK +2.40 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model