Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 96

Indianapolis Colts 6 – Carolina Panthers 10

(1:15) 1-P.McAfee punts 43 yards to IND 47, Center-45-M.Overton. 19-T.Ginn pushed ob at IND 29 for 18 yards (1-P.McAfee).

The Three Options

GO -3.61 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.30 EP
63% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 96, worth -5.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model