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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 6

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Carolina Panthers 23

What Actually Happened

(:02) 4-A.Vinatieri 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +2.71 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 6, worth +0.25 EP
KICK +2.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +3.02 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth +0.02 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model