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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 52

Indianapolis Colts 6 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(6:38) 1-P.McAfee punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.94 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.89 EP
KICK -1.81 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model