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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 88

Carolina Panthers 10 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(3:03) 8-B.Nortman punts 61 yards to IND 27, Center-44-J.Jansen. 13-T.Hilton to IND 37 for 10 yards (84-E.Dickson).

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.89 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 88, worth -4.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.11 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 46, worth -2.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP