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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
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Buffalo Bills

HC Rex Ryan
Sunday 2015-09-20 · 13:00 Ralph Wilson Stadium, Orchard Park US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

NE
56.2%
BUF
43.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.295 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • BUF offense: +0.106 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • NE defense: +0.227 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • QB edge to BUF: Tyrod Taylor (BUF) +0.525 vs Tom Brady (NE) +0.469 EPA/dropback
  • NE on 3 more days rest than BUF
  • Tyrod Taylor (BUF) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

NE 27
–
BUF 26
Projected margin: NE by 1 Projected total: 53

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

NE

Ryan Wendell C Out Illness
Dominique Easley DT Doubtful Hip
Travaris Cadet RB Probable Hamstring
Trey Flowers DE Probable Knee
Tavon Wilson S Probable Quadricep

BUF

Marquise Goodwin WR Out Ribs
Tony Steward LB Out Knee
LeSean McCoy RB Questionable Hamstring
Corey Graham CB Probable Concussion
Percy Harvin WR Probable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 40
–
BUF 32

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:03 TD BUF (10:03) (Shotgun) 29-Ka.Williams up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – BUF 6
  • Q1 04:08 TD NE (4:08) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 11-J.Edelman for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at goal line, crossing from middle. NE 6 – BUF 7
  • Q1 01:04 TD NE (1:04) 33-D.Lewis right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 13 – BUF 7
  • Q2 13:18 TD NE (13:18) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 87-R.Gronkowski for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 7 yds. into end zone, crossing from left. NE 20 – BUF 7
  • Q2 05:20 TD BUF (5:20) 5-T.Taylor pass short right to 85-C.Clay for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at NE 3. NE 21 – BUF 13
  • Q2 02:23 FG NE (2:23) 3-S.Gostkowski 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 24 – BUF 13
  • Q3 10:06 FG NE (10:06) 3-S.Gostkowski 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 27 – BUF 13
  • Q3 03:32 TD NE (3:32) (No Huddle) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 11-J.Edelman for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF-23-A.Williams was injured during the play. He is Out. Caught at BUF 17, crossing from middle. A.Williams removed from field by ambulance. NE 33 – BUF 13
  • Q3 00:33 FG NE (:33) 3-S.Gostkowski 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 37 – BUF 13
  • Q4 11:48 TD BUF (11:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep right to 10-R.Woods for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 2 yds. into end zone. NE 37 – BUF 19
  • Q4 05:32 TD BUF (5:32) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor left guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 37 – BUF 25
  • Q4 04:20 TD BUF (4:20) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep left to 14-S.Watkins for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 37 – BUF 31
  • Q4 01:18 FG NE (1:18) 3-S.Gostkowski 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 40 – BUF 32

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (8:39) 6-R.Allen punts 54 yards to BUF 24, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-M.Thigpen pushed ob at NE 46 for 30 yards (6-R.Allen). Return credited to BUF 38 (spot of foul). PENALTY on BUF-58-Ra.Johnson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 38.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 15 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (6:42) 6-C.Schmidt punts 49 yards to NE 28, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 80-D.Amendola pushed ob at NE 38 for 10 yards (20-C.Graham).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 19 at the 99
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:41) 6-C.Schmidt punts 54 yards to NE 45, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 80-D.Amendola to BUF 27 for 28 yards (26-A.Dixon). Penalty on BUF-20-C.Graham, Unnecessary Roughness, declined. PENALTY on BUF-27-D.Williams, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 14 yards, enforced at BUF 27.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (11:08) 6-C.Schmidt punts 33 yards to NE 42, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 3 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 46%

    (9:10) 6-C.Schmidt punts 29 yards to NE 12, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 52
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74% p(FG) 20%

    (6:45) (No Huddle) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep right to 11-J.Edelman. Overthrown, receiver at BUF 24. Pressure on QB: Ma.Williams.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 7 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 77%

    (2:23) 3-S.Gostkowski 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 98%

    (10:06) 3-S.Gostkowski 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 7 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (6:46) 6-C.Schmidt punts 48 yards to NE 15, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 11-J.Edelman to NE 17 for 2 yards (81-M.Easley, 53-N.Bradham).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 20 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:38) 6-C.Schmidt punts 36 yards to BUF 46, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 80-D.Amendola to BUF 30 for 16 yards (52-P.Brown). Return credited to BUF 45 (spot of foul). PENALTY on NE-23-P.Chung, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 45.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 10 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 69%

    (:33) 3-S.Gostkowski 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 64%

    (12:16) (Shotgun) 29-Ka.Williams up the middle to NE 32 for 2 yards (91-J.Collins).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73% p(FG) 46%

    (8:15) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep middle to 11-J.Edelman. Overthrown, receiver at BUF 9.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 8 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 97%

    (1:18) 3-S.Gostkowski 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.