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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 15 at the 77

Buffalo Bills 7 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(6:42) 6-C.Schmidt punts 49 yards to NE 28, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 80-D.Amendola pushed ob at NE 38 for 10 yards (20-C.Graham).

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.35 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 77, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 34, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model