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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Buffalo Bills
4th & 1 at the 34
Buffalo Bills 13 – New England Patriots 37
What Actually Happened
(12:16) (Shotgun) 29-Ka.Williams up the middle to NE 32 for 2 yards (91-J.Collins).
The Three Options
GO
+2.34 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.77 EP
- 29% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 34, worth -1.15 EP
KICK
+1.00 EP
- 64% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.56 EP
- 36% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 44, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT
+0.31 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
