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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 8

New England Patriots 37 – Buffalo Bills 32

What Actually Happened

(1:18) 3-S.Gostkowski 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.88 EP
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +2.86 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 8, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model