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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 52

New England Patriots 21 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(6:45) (No Huddle) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep right to 11-J.Edelman. Overthrown, receiver at BUF 24. Pressure on QB: Ma.Williams.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.41 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 52, worth -2.88 EP
KICK -1.92 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.97 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 15, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model