Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 20 at the 90

Buffalo Bills 13 – New England Patriots 34

What Actually Happened

(1:38) 6-C.Schmidt punts 36 yards to BUF 46, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 80-D.Amendola to BUF 30 for 16 yards (52-P.Brown). Return credited to BUF 45 (spot of foul). PENALTY on NE-23-P.Chung, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 45.

The Three Options

GO -3.27 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.46 EP
70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 90, worth -5.32 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model