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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 32

New England Patriots 34 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(:33) 3-S.Gostkowski 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.41 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 32, worth -1.52 EP
KICK +0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 42, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model