Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 63

Buffalo Bills 13 – New England Patriots 27

(6:46) 6-C.Schmidt punts 48 yards to NE 15, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 11-J.Edelman to NE 17 for 2 yards (81-M.Easley, 53-N.Bradham).

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.36 EP
57% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 63, worth -3.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model