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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 41

New England Patriots 37 – Buffalo Bills 19

What Actually Happened

(8:15) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep middle to 11-J.Edelman. Overthrown, receiver at BUF 9.

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.92 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 41, worth -2.13 EP
KICK -0.68 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.83 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model