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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 41

Buffalo Bills 7 – New England Patriots 21

What Actually Happened

(9:10) 6-C.Schmidt punts 29 yards to NE 12, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.65 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 41, worth -1.68 EP
KICK -0.28 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP