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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 28

New England Patriots 21 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(2:23) 3-S.Gostkowski 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.25 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 28, worth -1.45 EP
KICK +1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 38, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model