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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
Sunday 2025-01-12 · 16:30 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread 5.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

GB
42.3%
PHI
57.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.139 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • PHI offense: +0.165 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.101 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Jordan Love (GB): +0.202 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • GB defense: -0.115 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

GB 23
–
PHI 25
Projected margin: PHI by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 19

GB

Zayne Anderson S Out Concussion
Christian Watson WR Out Knee
Andre Dillard T Questionable Concussion
Brenton Cox DE Questionable Foot
Tedarrell Slaton DT Questionable Ankle
Quay Walker LB Questionable Ankle
Evan Williams S Questionable Quadricep

PHI

Trevor Keegan G Out Illness
Byron Young DT Out Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 10
–
PHI 22

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:30 TD PHI (13:30) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 83-J.Dotson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – PHI 6
  • Q1 00:22 FG PHI (:22) 4-J.Elliott 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. GB 0 – PHI 10
  • Q3 05:49 FG GB (5:49) 17-B.McManus 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 3 – PHI 10
  • Q3 03:26 TD PHI (3:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 88-D.Goedert for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 3 – PHI 16
  • Q4 15:00 TD GB (15:00) 8-J.Jacobs left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 9 – PHI 16
  • Q4 07:36 FG PHI (7:36) 4-J.Elliott 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. GB 10 – PHI 19
  • Q4 03:15 FG PHI (3:15) 4-J.Elliott 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. GB 10 – PHI 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 8 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (12:18) 19-D.Whelan punts 50 yards to PHI 35, Center-42-M.Orzech. 33-C.DeJean to PHI 35 for no gain (80-B.Melton).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 5 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 38%

    (9:21) 10-B.Mann punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-49-R.Lovato, Touchback.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 17 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (5:31) 19-D.Whelan punts 50 yards to PHI 19, Center-42-M.Orzech. 33-C.DeJean pushed ob at PHI 30 for 11 yards (45-Er.Wilson; 30-C.Brooks).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 10 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (:22) 4-J.Elliott 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 9 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (12:56) 10-B.Mann punts 54 yards to GB 23, Center-49-R.Lovato. 11-J.Reed pushed ob at GB 43 for 20 yards (10-B.Mann; 28-W.Shipley).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 19
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 92%

    (7:19) Direct snap to 85-T.Kraft. 85-T.Kraft up the middle to PHI 17 for 2 yards (19-J.Sweat).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 13 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 92%

    (5:09) 17-B.McManus 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (3:32) 10-B.Mann punts 44 yards to GB 23, impetus ends at GB 21, Center-49-R.Lovato, out of bounds. PENALTY on PHI-21-S.Brown, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at GB 23.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 9 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 46%

    (:22) 10-B.Mann punts 33 yards to GB 11, Center-49-R.Lovato, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 19 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (11:46) 10-B.Mann punts 63 yards to GB 10, Center-49-R.Lovato. 11-J.Reed to GB 16 for 6 yards (53-Z.Baun).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%

    (5:49) 17-B.McManus 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 29%

    (13:35) (No Huddle) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to GB 48 for 3 yards (58-I.McDuffie).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 8 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%

    (7:36) 4-J.Elliott 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 3 at the 59
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (5:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 18-M.Heath.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 14 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 96%

    (3:15) 4-J.Elliott 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.