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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 51

Philadelphia Eagles 16 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(13:35) (No Huddle) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to GB 48 for 3 yards (58-I.McDuffie).

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.74 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -1.39 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model