Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 85

Green Bay Packers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

(12:18) 19-D.Whelan punts 50 yards to PHI 35, Center-42-M.Orzech. 33-C.DeJean to PHI 35 for no gain (80-B.Melton).

The Three Options

GO -2.81 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.50 EP
58% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 85, worth -5.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model