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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 17 at the 69

Green Bay Packers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(5:31) 19-D.Whelan punts 50 yards to PHI 19, Center-42-M.Orzech. 33-C.DeJean pushed ob at PHI 30 for 11 yards (45-Er.Wilson; 30-C.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.40 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 69, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 27, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model