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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 59

Green Bay Packers 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 19

What Actually Happened

(5:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 18-M.Heath.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.07 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 59, worth -2.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 18, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model