4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 67

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:32) 10-B.Mann punts 44 yards to GB 23, impetus ends at GB 21, Center-49-R.Lovato, out of bounds. PENALTY on PHI-21-S.Brown, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at GB 23.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.95 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 25, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model