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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 13 at the 20

Green Bay Packers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(5:09) 17-B.McManus 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.38 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 20, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model