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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 19

Green Bay Packers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(7:19) Direct snap to 85-T.Kraft. 85-T.Kraft up the middle to PHI 17 for 2 yards (19-J.Sweat).

The Three Options

GO +2.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.64 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 19, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.27 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 29, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model