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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 13

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(:22) 4-J.Elliott 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.24 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 13, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.62 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model