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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 44

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(:22) 10-B.Mann punts 33 yards to GB 11, Center-49-R.Lovato, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +2.79 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 44, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.36 EP