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New England Patriots

HC Jerod Mayo
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MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
Sunday 2024-11-24 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

NE
29.8%
MIA
70.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: -0.131 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Drake Maye (NE): -0.048 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • MIA offense: -0.044 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • NE defense: +0.069 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NE 19
–
MIA 25
Projected margin: MIA by 6 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

NE

Jaquelin Roy DT Out Neck
Christian Barmore DT Questionable Not injury related - other
Sione Takitaki LB Questionable Knee
Kyle Dugger S Questionable Ankle
Christian Gonzalez CB Questionable Hip
Anfernee Jennings LB Questionable Knee
Vederian Lowe T Questionable Shoulder
Marte Mapu LB Questionable Neck
Cole Strange G Questionable Knee
Keion White DE Questionable Knee
Deatrich Wise DE Questionable Foot

MIA

Kendall Fuller CB Out Concussion
Terron Armstead T Questionable Knee
Patrick McMorris S Questionable Calf
Alec Ingold FB Questionable Calf
Isaiah Wynn G Questionable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 15
–
MIA 34

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 14:16 TD MIA (14:16) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 9-J.Smith for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – MIA 6
  • Q2 07:55 TD MIA (7:55) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 28-D.Achane for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – MIA 13
  • Q2 01:55 TD MIA (1:55) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 28-D.Achane for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – MIA 20
  • Q2 00:05 FG MIA (:05) 7-J.Sanders 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-16-J.Bailey. NE 0 – MIA 24
  • Q3 01:44 TD MIA (1:44) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 17-J.Waddle for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – MIA 30
  • Q4 13:54 TD NE (13:54) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle to 81-A.Hooper for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – MIA 31
  • Q4 10:22 TD NE (10:22) (Shotgun) 25-J.Wright up the middle to NE 37 for -3 yards (15-M.Mapu). FUMBLES (15-M.Mapu), RECOVERED by NE-0-C.Gonzalez at NE 37. 0-C.Gonzalez for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 13 – MIA 31
  • Q4 03:38 FG MIA (3:38) 7-J.Sanders 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-16-J.Bailey. NE 15 – MIA 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (12:37) 17-B.Baringer punts 57 yards to MIA 4, Center-49-J.Cardona. 83-M.Washington to MIA 17 for 13 yards (21-J.Hawkins).

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 2 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (10:40) 16-J.Bailey punts 51 yards to NE 13, Center-46-T.Addington, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 13 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 84%

    (3:13) 13-J.Slye 45 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 9 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (6:12) 17-B.Baringer punts 69 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 20 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (1:36) 17-B.Baringer punts 39 yards to MIA 41, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 99%

    (:05) 7-J.Sanders 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (13:09) 16-J.Bailey punts 52 yards to NE 14, Center-46-T.Addington. 25-M.Jones to NE 25 for 11 yards (81-D.Smythe).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 17 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 36%

    (8:11) 17-B.Baringer punts 41 yards to MIA 7, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 83-M.Washington.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (4:26) 16-J.Bailey punts 39 yards to NE 16, Center-46-T.Addington, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 15 at the 38
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 62%

    (13:54) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle to 81-A.Hooper for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (12:52) 16-J.Bailey punts 53 yards to NE 13, Center-46-T.Addington. 25-M.Jones pushed ob at NE 20 for 7 yards (45-D.Riley).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 4 at the 62
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (11:06) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep left to 84-K.Bourne.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 14 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (6:31) 16-J.Bailey punts 45 yards to NE 17, Center-46-T.Addington. 25-M.Jones pushed ob at NE 37 for 20 yards (85-R.Cracraft).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 6 at the 33 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 73%

    (3:38) 7-J.Sanders 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 3 at the 47 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 38%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 3-D.Douglas to MIA 45 for 2 yards (51-T.Bowser; 4-K.Kohou).