Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 66

Miami Dolphins 31 – New England Patriots 7

(12:52) 16-J.Bailey punts 53 yards to NE 13, Center-46-T.Addington. 25-M.Jones pushed ob at NE 20 for 7 yards (45-D.Riley).

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.07 EP
57% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 66, worth -3.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model