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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 47

New England Patriots 15 – Miami Dolphins 34

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 3-D.Douglas to MIA 45 for 2 yards (51-T.Bowser; 4-K.Kohou).

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.04 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 47, worth -1.36 EP
KICK -0.03 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 13, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model