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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 62

New England Patriots 7 – Miami Dolphins 31

What Actually Happened

(11:06) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep left to 84-K.Bourne.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.11 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 62, worth -3.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model