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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 15 at the 38

New England Patriots 0 – Miami Dolphins 31

What Actually Happened

(13:54) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle to 81-A.Hooper for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.32 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 38, worth -2.02 EP
KICK -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 47, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.45 EP