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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 64

Miami Dolphins 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(10:40) 16-J.Bailey punts 51 yards to NE 13, Center-46-T.Addington, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.38 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 64, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 22, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP