4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 17 at the 48

New England Patriots 0 – Miami Dolphins 24

What Actually Happened

(8:11) 17-B.Baringer punts 41 yards to MIA 7, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 83-M.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.91 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 48, worth -2.78 EP
KICK -1.29 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model