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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 55

Miami Dolphins 24 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(4:26) 16-J.Bailey punts 39 yards to NE 16, Center-46-T.Addington, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.83 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 55, worth -2.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 16, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model