Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 14 at the 62

Miami Dolphins 31 – New England Patriots 15

(6:31) 16-J.Bailey punts 45 yards to NE 17, Center-46-T.Addington. 25-M.Jones pushed ob at NE 37 for 20 yards (85-R.Cracraft).

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.39 EP
70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 62, worth -3.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model