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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 33

Miami Dolphins 31 – New England Patriots 15

What Actually Happened

(3:38) 7-J.Sanders 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.49 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 33, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 43, worth -1.59 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model