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Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton
@
LV Home

Las Vegas Raiders

HC Antonio Pierce
Sunday 2024-11-24 · 16:05 Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread -6.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

DEN
60.4%
LV
39.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.130 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.083 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to DEN: Gardner Minshew (LV) -0.085 vs Bo Nix (DEN) -0.013 EPA/dropback
  • DEN defense: -0.101 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 24
–
LV 19
Projected margin: DEN by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

DEN

Josh Reynolds WR Out Hand
Drew Sanders LB Out Achilles
Brandon Jones S Questionable Illness
Zach Allen DE Questionable Not injury related - resting player

LV

Jakorian Bennett CB Out Shoulder
Nate Hobbs CB Out Ankle
Alexander Mattison RB Doubtful Ankle
Zamir White RB Doubtful Quadricep
Harrison Bryant TE Questionable Ankle
Andre James C Questionable Ankle
Jack Jones CB Questionable Back
Cody Whitehair G Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 29
–
LV 19

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:51 FG DEN (2:51) 3-W.Lutz 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 3 – LV 0
  • Q2 13:40 TD LV (13:40) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short right to 8-A.Abdullah for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 3 – LV 6
  • Q2 09:26 FG DEN (9:26) 3-W.Lutz 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 6 – LV 7
  • Q2 03:52 FG LV (3:52) 2-D.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. DEN 6 – LV 10
  • Q2 00:58 FG DEN (:58) 3-W.Lutz 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 9 – LV 10
  • Q2 00:02 FG LV (:02) 2-D.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. DEN 9 – LV 13
  • Q3 10:53 TD DEN (10:53) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 14-C.Sutton for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 15 – LV 13
  • Q4 12:10 FG DEN (12:10) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 19 – LV 13
  • Q4 09:04 FG LV (9:04) 2-D.Carlson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. DEN 19 – LV 16
  • Q4 05:34 TD DEN (5:34) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 14-C.Sutton for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 25 – LV 16
  • Q4 03:41 FG LV (3:41) 2-D.Carlson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. DEN 26 – LV 19
  • Q4 02:00 FG DEN (2:00) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 29 – LV 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 3 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 56%

    (12:16) 6-A.Cole punts 31 yards to DEN 11, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 9 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 34%

    (9:16) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to LV 8, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 19-D.Turner.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 11 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (8:04) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to DEN 33, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 16 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 92%

    (2:51) 3-W.Lutz 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 19 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 73%

    (9:26) 3-W.Lutz 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (8:33) (Punt formation) 6-A.Cole pass short right to 5-D.Deablo to DEN 30 for 34 yards (19-M.Mims).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 15 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 95%

    (3:52) 2-D.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 14 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 70%

    (:58) 3-W.Lutz 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 8 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:33) 9-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to LV 16, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 19-D.Turner pushed ob at LV 22 for 6 yards (45-N.Adkins).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 8 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 54%

    (8:00) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to DEN 1, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by LV-19-D.Turner.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 7 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (3:10) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to LV 11, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 4 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (1:38) 6-A.Cole punts 57 yards to DEN 26, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 19-M.Mims ran ob at DEN 48 for 22 yards (45-T.Eichenberg).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 15 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 87%

    (12:10) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 10 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 73%

    (9:04) 2-D.Carlson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 4 at the 4 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (3:41) 2-D.Carlson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 70 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (3:23) 9-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to LV 16, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 19-D.Turner to LV 24 for 8 yards (1-T.Smith; 52-J.Elliss).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 8 at the 15 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 95%

    (2:00) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 11 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.16 EP
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 97%

    (:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Ridder pass short left to 11-T.Tucker for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Ridder pass short left to 11-T.Tucker to DEN 1 for 10 yards (6-P.Locke).