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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 42

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(12:16) 6-A.Cole punts 31 yards to DEN 11, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.75 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 42, worth -1.90 EP
KICK +0.02 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP