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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 70

Denver Broncos 26 – Las Vegas Raiders 19

What Actually Happened

(3:23) 9-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to LV 16, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 19-D.Turner to LV 24 for 8 yards (1-T.Smith; 52-J.Elliss).

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.79 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 70, worth -1.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 28, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model