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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 15 at the 26

Denver Broncos 16 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(12:10) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.90 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 36, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model