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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 16 at the 20

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(2:51) 3-W.Lutz 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.83 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 20, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.13 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model