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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 43

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Denver Broncos 16

What Actually Happened

(8:00) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to DEN 1, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by LV-19-D.Turner.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.77 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 43, worth -2.09 EP
KICK -0.29 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model