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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 64

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Denver Broncos 6

What Actually Happened

(8:33) (Punt formation) 6-A.Cole pass short right to 5-D.Deablo to DEN 30 for 34 yards (19-M.Mims).

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.32 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 64, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 22, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model