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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 11

Las Vegas Raiders 19 – Denver Broncos 29

What Actually Happened

(:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Ridder pass short left to 11-T.Tucker for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Ridder pass short left to 11-T.Tucker to DEN 1 for 10 yards (6-P.Locke).

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
What Happened
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +2.32 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +2.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.69 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 22, worth -0.17 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.16 EP