Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 83

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Denver Broncos 16

(1:38) 6-A.Cole punts 57 yards to DEN 26, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 19-M.Mims ran ob at DEN 48 for 22 yards (45-T.Eichenberg).

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.87 EP
51% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 83, worth -4.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model