Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 68

Denver Broncos 9 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

(13:33) 9-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to LV 16, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 19-D.Turner pushed ob at LV 22 for 6 yards (45-N.Adkins).

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.11 EP
60% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 68, worth -4.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model